Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 12.419098 15.226084 18.355193 22.078424 26.363414 31.115994 36.760448
2025-11-16 8.235728 11.766671 16.156989 21.912470 29.146987 37.825322 48.898928
2025-11-23 5.775656 9.400170 14.331013 21.303871 30.664526 42.541302 58.465625
2025-11-30 4.577630 8.318897 13.799453 22.027011 33.638934 48.994965 70.331005
2025-12-07 3.467041 7.052379 12.705839 21.693749 34.983477 53.231136 79.400654
2025-12-14 2.763175 6.241885 12.105562 21.907456 36.987059 58.350560 89.793044
2025-12-21 2.014610 5.139739 10.819340 20.847976 36.940513 60.494026 96.092279
2025-12-28 1.676213 4.721553 10.596154 21.414288 39.330453 66.188916 107.570989
2026-01-04 1.368426 4.275348 10.234555 21.675803 41.214483 71.184908 118.210317
2026-01-11 1.135921 3.926433 9.987551 22.082548 43.321393 76.575497 129.601385
2026-01-18 0.966616 3.677767 9.890430 22.727978 45.835469 82.672370 142.239438
2026-01-25 0.742090 3.199933 9.227760 22.231750 46.351669 85.639553 150.232829
2026-02-01 0.584071 2.863519 8.843571 22.292062 47.954418 90.602896 161.803854
2026-02-08 0.446655 2.526268 8.391969 22.168583 49.232255 95.131763 172.943878
2026-02-15 0.320623 2.149270 7.751641 21.557082 49.544897 98.052035 181.628529
2026-02-22 0.267753 2.028824 7.742739 22.287031 52.394782 105.322411 197.480302
2026-03-01 0.195429 1.766043 7.282489 21.950722 53.166113 109.070801 207.752717
2026-03-08 0.151870 1.607221 7.078499 22.166392 55.010984 114.726800 221.301708
2026-03-15 0.096664 1.313096 6.376237 21.097143 54.194461 115.659429 227.051837
2026-03-22 0.077808 1.234582 6.347048 21.668690 56.748347 122.667924 243.149550
2026-03-29 0.059226 1.131270 6.204754 21.932612 58.670144 128.600225 257.592518
2026-04-05 0.045860 1.051235 6.123735 22.343088 60.919715 135.202794 273.351352
2026-04-12 0.036836 0.998837 6.133224 22.994407 63.719641 142.908739 291.199286